Investment 101

I almost forgot.

2007-03-21T15:13:00.000-04:00

I got the job! Start on Monday. This blog may need to change a bit due to my new role, will update things as I know more.

old post that never made it

2007-03-21T15:10:00.000-04:00

I had a problem with a previous post and it never made it to the board. This includes last year's successes and failures.

Ok, where was I. If the stock market were a car, then consumers would be the driver. What we want and what we need in turn becomes what we buy. We can steer the market in a direction toward what we are purchasing. The market moves up and down depending on how well we are doing, we have the accelerator and brake in the form of retirement programs and consumer spending. The government is the RMV(kind of funny how true this is). Listed companies in turn aren't even part of the car, they are more like billboards. They are all saying 'buy me." Like the McDonalds, Next Exit signs. How well they produce the good we want will determine if we steer toward them. This analogy isn't working out.

Here's how I determine what stocks I buy. First I sit back and look around me. What has changed, what's new. Look for companies that have been around forever that have a depressed stock price. The hot item Christmas '05, IPODs, so for a short time APPL went through the roof, then came crashing back to reality. It has since gone through the roof again with a great new computer launch.

Some of my success stories from last year and my thought process behind it. CWTR, SBUX, WFMI, DB, RAI, HES

Last year, Starbucks stores started popping up everywhere from the mall to Target. now I'm not a big fan of their coffee, but a lot of people are and they will pay big bucks for it. Also, I heard the CEO on Mad Money talking about their China expansion and that there are 250 million young, affluent Chinese people. SBUX is a growth company and should trade at a multiple of 50. With that in mind I picked it up when it was trading around a P/E of 35 and sold it when it got near 50.

Many of you probably haven't heard of Coldwater Creek. For many years it was a women's catalog clothing company. Solid, but boring. They have gone national with expanding there retail stores and their customer base is women 40+. Its my mother's favorite place to shop. So, I used to go in there when I needed to buy her gifts, they had a multitude of things to buy and the place was always crowded. I bought the stock solely based on my experience at the store.

Whole Foods, last year I bought and shorted this stock and was right in both directions. I was right, not because I'm good or lucky, but the market was wrong. Based off of WFMI growth rate they were similar to SBUX in growth rate and should have been trading in a similar mulitple range. For some reason this stock was a roller coaster even though the company was steady. So when it dropped too low, I bought and when it went nuts I shorted it. No great profits, but a 10-20% gain in both directions.

Deutche Bank, I wanted a bank stock to diversify my portfolio that would not be as effected by potentially rising interest rates. I got lucky and jumped on a steaming train. I expected steady and got an ass-kicker.

Reynolds American, I wanted a high dividend stock(they paid 5% at the time) that seemed underpriced. They fit the criteria. Comparing them to other tobacco stocks, their financials were very good, but the price was depressed. I jumped on at the right time and rode them for about a 30% bump. Hard not to ride a good company for that last year.

Hess, if there is an oil company out there that can be liked its Hess. They are the little guy of the business and they own the NY Jets. I bought them, because 3 of 5 guys in my department got a Hess Card this year. They give you 5% off your gas and they are putting up a lot of Hess Express stations. I looked them up and their price was down compared to other oil companies, so I bought some. HES has typically in the past traded closely with the price of oil. This past dip in oil prices was the first time they held their ground. I think the new stores and credit cards are partially responsible for that.

Next post will be....

My biggest mistake. CQB

Some I didn't jump on but weren't surprised by the way they moved. TM, MCD, ANN, CWTR

How I decide if a company is over/under or correctly priced.

Updates on previous posts

2007-03-08T07:34:00.000-05:00

AMGN - I sold about 2/3 of my stake before it tanked. I am looking at picking some back up possibly. $61/share is just way too cheap for this stock.

SBUX - I bought some at around 32. If it hits 28 without any bad news I will probably buy some more.

Got to love when you get something right, but don't act on it. I own a bit of FRO and it pays a great dividend. $30-$40 stock that paid a $2.50 dividend in December and just announced a $2.05 dividend payable this week. My point being.... The history on this stock is that it drops significantly after paying the dividend only to rebound before the next quarterly announcement. So the plan was to short the stock before today, the date of record for the dividend and then cover it after it drops. The theory here is that you essentially double your dividend if the stock does as you predict.

The Bottom

2007-03-06T08:38:00.000-05:00

According to Cramer..... from his book Smart Money, when the stock market dropping reaches the front page of national news outlets, we have reached a bottom. Yesterday morning both the USA Today and Fox News had a story about the most recent dip and the fact that it could keep going due to the Asian markets. If Cramer is right, then we are done. Don't know about y'all, but I got hammered pretty well during this correction. I had a good portion of my account in cash, but Starbucks and my cell tower stocks got whomped.
When Toyota dropped I bought more, my Deutsche Bank sale and Toyota purchase have been a wash so far. Look for DB to drop more throughout the 2nd quarter like it has done in the past, its worth buying now, but seems to go down this time of year.

I've been bad about keeping to a topic on this blog and promise to get better. Which means I will continue my chart buying segment which I began about a month ago. Wish me luck, interview #3 today. Hopefully I'll be starting this new career soon.

Look at MWE today, if it goes up I'm happy if it goes down I'm not. Took a flier and bought it on margin last week, they reported last night. I haven't listened to the conference call yet.

Hold on to your hats!!

2007-03-01T11:16:00.000-05:00

People are starting to panic. There is NO need to panic. Unless most of your 401k is in that international fund that you know nothing about. The market could correct as much as 5% more, its down a total of about 4% as I'm writing this. Its been over inflated for a while. I was lucky to have my cash account not in anything at the time of the drop. I also had about 20% of my 401k in cash also. I got hit pretty hard, but only about average. I think I am still up for the year, even if its only a little. I picked up some more TM today, my 3rd purchase now. I also got lucky and pulled the trigger on DB two days before things fell. Granted I spent that cash on cell towers which have tumbled.

That's all for now. Again, don't panic. May be time to bu a couple of dividend stocks, see a few posts below for some that I like.

Waiting is worse then knowing

2007-02-23T10:50:00.000-05:00

Trying to get my financial career started. I'm waiting to hear on a job that I interviewed for twice and the waiting game sucks. Not knowing whether they are just taking longer then expected or if they've decided to toss you to the curb, just plain sucks.

Stock news to follow later today...

Fish in a barrel!

2007-02-13T10:59:00.000-05:00

When the stock market is doing well, everything seems fine and dandy. I picked up some Alcoa, not enough bought less then I normally would for a trade, because it was all the available cash I had at the time. If you believed their statement about growth this year due to strong aluminum demands then they were underpriced. Before I bought them they went up almost 10% which made me question the purchase, but even at that price they were cheap. I picked some up at 30.34 and it has been moving up steadily, until today when out of nowhere it popped 8% at the open is is retracing somewhat now. I will soon be getting out. Made my cash, now time to move on to another value pick.

SBUX

2007-02-13T08:26:00.000-05:00

I will be looking deeper into SBUX in the next couple of days. They are dropping like a rock and I don't see a prevailing reason why, except that they are volatile and the market is moving down. Could be a good opportunity to pick them up.

My positions, before and after lunch.

2007-02-12T13:05:00.000-05:00

Before lunch

AA - 11.71%
AMGN - 33.28%
CZN - 6.92%
DB - 12.17%
FRO - 11.10%
T - 17.53%
Cash - 7.4%

If DB sells at asking price.

AA - 11.71%
AMGN - 20.67%
CZN - 6.92%
DB - 8.11%
FRO - 11.10%
Cash - 37.84%

I'm reevaluating my positions.

Good Morning

2007-02-12T08:45:00.000-05:00

Well, I was bitching and moaning to myself this morning about how my portfolio has recently backtracked. then I looked up the three major indexes and realized that they have collectively risen 1.39% for the year and have given back ground in the past week. I feel better now, being up 3.74% YTD. I will continue my chart buying topic this week, as early as today. I need to change my holdings and move into things that can grow throughout this year. I'm just not feeling confident in some of my current stuff. I'll list my holdings and the percent of my portfolio later.

Cramer - If you haven't read any of his books or watched much of his TV show, but you are interested. Read his books in reverse order of their publication. I haven't read his first book yet, but his second book was very good. His third book which I'm reading now, Mad Money, so far is a pre-cursor to book #2, Real Money. Its quick and I'm sure there are a few things I'll pick up.

Gains

2007-02-06T12:14:00.000-05:00

It never hurts to take profits, but dam it sucks when a stock you sell keeps flying off the shelf.

Margin Trading

2007-02-06T09:27:00.000-05:00

Completed my first margin trade the other day. It was profitable. I bought COF in mid January, turned it around for a 7.2% per share increase, which on margin turned into a 14% gain. More risky then buying, but much less nerveracking then shorting.

Chart Buying 101

2007-02-01T11:52:00.000-05:00

Now that FY '06 earnings have been reported for most companies I am going to go back through my list of companies by sector and evaluate them by the metrics I've been using to make a lot of my purchases over the past year.
The majority of my buying/selling is done in large companies that are covered by numerous analysts and many firms. There are millions of ways to evaluate a stock and for that reason I don't think that the average individual investor can dig into a large company and find something that the analysts don't already have noted. So doing your basic stock research, financial statements analysis, conference calls and reading any related news/pr is plenty for an individual investor. Where you can separate yourself is with intuition and a couple of your own guidelines.

To be continued...... after I eat.

Ok, where was I. If the stock market were a car, then consumers would be the driver. What we want and what we need in turn becomes what we buy. We can steer the market in a direction toward what we are purchasing. The market moves up and down depending on how well we are doing, we have the accelerator and brake in the form of retirement programs and consumer spending. The government is the RMV(kind of funny how true this is). Listed companies in turn aren't even part of the car, they are more like billboards. They are all saying 'buy me." Like the McDonalds, Next Exit signs. How well they produce the good we want will determine if we steer toward them. This analogy isn't working out.

Here's how I determine what stocks I buy. First I sit back and look around me. What has changed, what's new. Look for companies that have been around forever that have a depressed stock price. The hot item Christmas '05, IPODs, so for a short time APPL went through the roof, then came crashing back to reality. It has since gone through the roof again with a great new computer launch.

Some of my success stories from last year and my thought process behind it. CWTR, SBUX, WFMI, DB, RAI, HES

Last year, Starbucks stores started popping up everywhere from the mall to Target. now I'm not a big fan of their coffee, but a lot of people are and they will pay big bucks for it. Also, I heard the CEO on Mad Money talking about their China expansion and that there are 250 million young, affluent Chinese people. SBUX is a growth company and should trade at a multiple of 50. With that in mind I picked it up when it was trading around a P/E of 35 and sold it when it got near 50.
Many of you probably haven't heard of Coldwater Creek. For many years it was a women's catalog clothing company. Solid, but boring. They have gone national with expanding there retail stores and their customer base is women 40+. Its my mother's favorite place to shop. So, I used to go in there when I needed to buy her gifts, they had a multitude of things to buy and the place was always crowded. I bought the stock solely based on my experience at the store.
Whole Foods, last year I bought and shorted this stock and was right in both directions. I was right, not because I'm good or lucky, but the market was wrong. Based off of WFMI growth rate they were similar to SBUX in growth rate and should have been trading in a similar mulitple range. For some reason this stock was a roller coaster even though the company was steady. So when it dropped too low, I bought and when it went nuts I shorted it. No great profits, but a 10-20% gain in both directions.
Deutche Bank, I wanted a bank stock to diversify my portfolio that would not be as effected by potentially rising interest rates. I got lucky and jumped on a steaming train. I expected steady and got an ass-kicker.
Reynolds American, I wanted a high dividend stock(they paid 5% at the time) that seemed underpriced. They fit the criteria. Comparing them to other tobacco stocks, their financials were very good, but the price was depressed. I jumped on at the right time and rode them for about a 30% bump. Hard not to ride a good company for that last year.
Hess, if there is an oil company out there that can be liked its Hess. They are the little guy of the business and they own the NY Jets. I bought them, because 3 of 5 guys in my department got a Hess Card this year. They give you 5% off your gas and they are putting up a lot of Hess Express stations. I looked them up and their price was down compared to other oil companies, so I bought some. HES has typically in the past traded closely with the price of oil. This past dip in oil prices was the first time they held their ground. I think the new stores and credit cards are partially responsible for that.

Next post will be....

My biggest mistake. CQB

Things I didn't jump on but weren't surprised by the way they moved. TM, MCD, ANN, CWTR

How I decide if a company is over/under or correctly priced.

The dilemma - AMGN

2007-01-31T15:13:00.000-05:00

Stick it out or dump it is the question......

I've been holding this stock for about a year now and I'm dead even. At this point it is the largest holding in my portfolio and I need to decide whether to hold on and hope for good things or dump it like the dog its acted like.

Here's the stats.

Last 5 years the company has grown at a 19.2% yoy rate.
Last year they earned 3.90/share, but diluted EPS ended up at 2.48 somehow. Looks like they took a big charge in the 2nd quarter, that's when the P/E jumped up on my Ameritrade chart.
Profit margin is 20.7% and operating margin is 35.8%, both strong.
They are projecting a growth rate of 13% this year or a full year EPS of $4.41.

A stock with a growth rate of 13% that has not missed an earnings estimate in a long time, their guidance is always conservative, in an industry that is growing should trade at a multiple above 20, more like 25-30. Going by their diluted EPS of $2.48 they are at an P/E of 28 right now, going by their actual earnings they are at a P/E of 18. Assuming they hit their earnings target of 4.41 at year's end then the stock should trade somewhere between a multiple of 18 and 28 or $80 and $125. If interest rates go up then multiples come down and I think you'll see interest rates go up again in late September. A realistic price for Dec. '07 is $85.

Other evidence.... http://www.thestreet.com/_yahoo/funds/madmoneywrap/10335542.html?cm_ven=YAHOO&cm_cat=FREE&cm_ite=NA
(Page 2)

Should I hold or try and use my money elsewhere?

I told you so

2007-01-24T09:02:00.000-05:00

Apache Oil, my favorite bounce play and stock that I've been pumping for a year, "buy when it goes below 63, sell above 68." Otherwise known as APA, also the stock that last week I told one of my friends to buy if he wanted to make money in oil right now, is up 10% in the past 10 days. They purchased 28 oil fields in Texas for 1 billion and this should push their stock up to around 80, its at 70 right now. I should sell something in order to pick it up.

If only I followed my own advice.....

Sorry, skipped a week.

2007-01-22T11:10:00.000-05:00

Well my retail picks hit the crapper, but I'm not sure there were too many retail stocks that ended up on the plus side. I have had a good run recently with PFE, COF and AMGN pulling me along. Even though my buddy Cramer took a dump all over COF I still believe its undervalued and should be in the mid 80s at least. One of last year's favorite swing plays looks like it may start a good 10% push. APA which is now at 68 should finally break the 80 mark that I thought they would hit last year. They just purchased a 28% share in someone's(can't remember the company) Texas oil field stake. Growth through acquisition can be just as good as internal growth.

I think the best way to beat the market this year will be through a mix of high dividend payers and small caps. Last year was the year of the big boys, this year the small guy will strike back.

Peace out for now.

Dividends Galore!!!

2007-01-11T12:31:00.000-05:00

A little while back one of my friends was asking about dividend stocks. So I went and dug up 20 stocks paying over 5% dividend. I've narrowed the list down to 8 that you could buy right now. In alphabetical ticker order, ALD, CZN, FRO, MWE, MMLP, MPW, PGH and PVX.

ALD - Great Buy right now.
CZN - pay $1 share, communications company, currently about 7%
FRO - last twelve months paid 22%. Dividend is variable.
MWE - good financials, dividend had doubled in last 5 yrs as well as stock price.
MCGC - pay 0.42/qtr, price varies from 15-20/share.
MPW - Little over 1yr old, div. has increased from 0.17-0.27. Medical industry.
PGH - pays monthly
PVX - pays monthly

Sitting in the slow lane

2007-01-11T10:33:00.000-05:00

Well, I'm watching everyone and the market zoom right by me. All my shit is in stall mode right now. I expect FRO and CZN to trade pretty flat since they are high dividend stocks. FRO is low right now and may be good to buy more. DB is flat, but just went through a huge run, I expect them to announce a hike in their dividend in the next couple of months which will boost their price short term again.

As for trading, AMGN is flatlined. I just bought some AA, they are projecting a good year and have room for their stock to move at least 20% this year. I also recently purchased some PFE, looking for a 10% flip within 8 weeks. I'm out by the end of February if it doesn't move. I also just shorted some SNE, Playstation 3, not so hot and their TV reviews aren't so good. I like SONY products, but stock is overpriced right now.

I need to do more homework, right now I don't see any good prospects. Still think HD is a good prospect, even with crappy real estate economy.

Communications is the way to go this year. I've been up in the air as to buy T or VZ, think I just have to buck up and pick one.

Tread lightly

2007-01-09T08:26:00.000-05:00

I have a feeling this is going to be an interesting year in the stock market. Since we currently have an inverted yield curve, which means that short term interest rates are higher then long-term, the experts expect us to have a recession soon. The short term rates are higher because people feel that rates over a 10-yr period will average less then they are right now. Anyways, historically this has been a precursor to a recession, plus they call them economic cycles for a reason and we are overdue for a recession.

Another thing pointing to a recession is the high level of mergers and acquisitions. Combine two companies and you need less staff such as accounting, HR and other support areas. You also have the opportunity to clear out undesireable salaries, such as long-term middle management.

Where was I going with this.... oh yeah! Inverted yield curve should lead to a more cautious investment strategy from the big players. This usually leads to a slight downturn in the market overall. What this means to the little guy. Look for under-valued dividend paying or consistent growth stocks this year. Avoid companies that will be relying on future defense contracts due to the shift in congress. International growth is still very good, SBUX. Companies with what was the latest and greatest thing will struggle as their growth slows and their P/E shrinks, WFMI and SNDK. Companies like PG and T should be steady and even though not blockbuster returns will make you 10-15% on the year.

retail, again

2007-01-05T12:59:00.000-05:00

I didn't do any homework on where the prices of the AMZN, BBY and DELL stood before companies report on Christmas season sales. Basically, DELL and BBY look ok, but holy crikey is AMZN already overpriced. So even though I think they will have a good Christamas it is almost impossible for good news to start a run.

How to get a stock to go up in price.

2007-01-04T15:58:00.000-05:00

Tip #48

Rip a stock on your blog as being a dog and it will jump in price the very next day. Predict a downfall based on bad news and at worst you are looking at a flat day.

Brilliant!!

Son of a Biatch!!

2007-01-04T08:19:00.000-05:00

I am in the process of realigning my retirement account for this year. I currently hold 3 longterm high yield dividend paying stocks which are the conservative portion of my portfolio. The rest of my money I use to hold 2-3 stocks which I actively trade. By actively trade I mean, goal is a 10% bump in 8 weeks. Eight weeks is an average length I hold them, the longest to date is almost a year. This would be a dog of a stock named Amgen.

Anyways....

A wise man once told me(Kramer), even if you are buying as little as 50 shares of a company to do it in steps. Yesterday I bought some Pfizer, one of my 5 star picks for the year. I also had a buy in at a lower price looking to pick some more up in the next few days if it dipped. Today I'm sitting at a stop light on my way to work reading the headlines in the WSJ. Two drugs used to trat Parkinson's disease shown to cause heart valve damage. Of course one them is Pfizer's. Well, I should be able to pick it up cheap today and so should you. Expect a 3-7% drop in the price, since the drug is fairly old.

Still mulling my upcoming communication acquisition. SKM, VZ, CCI, AMT and SBAC are in the running.

Oh yeah, incase you were wondering. My three high dividend holdings are FRO, CZN and DB. DB used to pay a higher % dividend, but the price went up 39% since I first bought it last year. YAY! me. CZN pays out $1/share on what is now a $14.xx stock and FRO's dividend changes with their earnings every quarter. They target paying a minimum of 6.75% a year, last year they paid 22%.

Peace Out for today.

Retail Time

2007-01-03T10:28:00.000-05:00

Time to guess which retailer will beat the street for Christmas. Since more and more people are shopping online these days and/or giving gift cards.

My picks are
AMZN, DELL and BBY.

AMZN was just cut by a major analyst today and is looking pretty good.
DELL was the #2 online retailer in $ right behind AMZN.
BBY is now under $50/share and it was very busy, Black Friday, Christmas Eve and two days after Christmas.

There were two reasons I used to avoid BBY at holiday time, parking and cashier lines. Their new line system has eliminated the cashier line problem. Unfortunately, eliminating the cashier problem only adds to the parking problem. Their customer service was also very helpful. They may not have the best prices in the world, but people are willing to not shop for the best price if you make the shopping experience pleasant. Best Buy has been accomplishing this recently.

ABCDEF.....

2007-01-03T10:06:00.000-05:00

Tip #127 -

When tracking and buying stock always remember to be careful with your letters. For more then a year now I have been tracking a few cell tower stocks(AMT, CCL and GSL), AMT I owned for a while. Today I'm going back through the watch list and realize that CCL is actually Carnival Cruise Lines. CCI is the stock I had been wanting to track. Whoops.

GSL is in the process of being sold to CCI for $55.95 or 1.61 shares of CCI. So they should trade together until the sale goes through. A cash option is available for GSL, if you know how to do this, which I don't then there's a couple of $s a share to be made right now.

Continuing on my communication stock theme

Main players in the cell tower stock industry are:
AMT, GSL/CCI and SBAC - This is not just alphabetical, but also their size by # of towers operated.

Foreign Communication stocks on the rise - SKM and VIP
SKM is South Korean, solid unless NK goes nuke happy again.
VIP is Russian, personally I'm not buying any Russian stock, but this one is on fire.

CCI will stall for the 1st quarter until the acquisition is complete. AMT and SBAC could be good acquisitions. Analysts are down on them and I'm not sure why, still investigating.

DJIA Picks for 2007

2007-01-02T11:15:00.000-05:00

Here's my picks from just the DJIA for 2007.

***** - VZ, PFE

**** - T, C, HD, AIG, UTX, HPQ

AIG, HPQ and C would be leading the way except their prices have all been driven too high since the early November run.

2007 Preview - Part I

2007-01-02T09:43:00.000-05:00

Looking into 2007, the market went nuts last year. Big company growth is predicted to slow and companies have an influx of cash right now. Look for a frenzy of mergers and acquisitions to continue throughout this year. M&A will slow down in the 1st quarter but pick back up through the 2nd and 3rd quarters.

Rough numbers, DJIA +16%, S&P +12% and Nasdaq +8%
My retirement, that I control, +25% I had a good year. My goal is to double the 3-market average each year. Later I will give a rundown of what I bought/sold throughout last year and how I did. No short sells, no margin trading.

As for this year....

My preditions are for growth stocks to tumble. Some housing stocks will rebound, most likely building materials, not home builders. Communications will flourish as will lower growth, more stable revenue generators.

More later including my '07 picks.

New Year's Resolution.

2007-01-02T09:29:00.000-05:00

Post here a lot more often.

2006 Year in Review

2007-01-02T09:28:00.000-05:00

First, since I never really mentioned this due to lack of response (25%). I never really mentioned the survey I took last January. In that survey, strongest backed companies were Apple and Starbucks.

Based off of your responses, my recommendations included Toyota, Whole Foods, Verizon and get out of anything to do with housing.
Whole Foods was a good play if you knew when to get out, which is pretty easy to determine with them. Toyota is a giant. Verizon is solid.

Made money twice on starbucks this year. Apple was dangerous. Huge christmas for the ipod last year drove it through the roof, then they came back to reality.

Basically if you couldn't beat the market by just playing the big baord this year, let someone else take care of your money. That being said, everyone makes bad trades. For instance, my shitbum picks of the year.... AMGN and the 800-lb gorilla known as CQB.

Foot in mouth

2006-10-03T14:42:00.000-04:00

Spoke too soon. EXP downgraded their FY '07 forecast and the stock subsequently downgraded itself. RAI has bouyed and is flat between 60-61.50. Within 10 days I will be looking into high yield stocks and reporting on my potential purchases and stocks to avoid(or short if you got the sack).

YES!!!

2006-09-20T14:23:00.000-04:00

Whoops, general update was meant for my other blog.

Anyways, sometimes it feels good to be right. EXP reported today and on good news jumped over 10% in early trading. Good company and should continue the up trend.

BRILLIANT!!

2006-09-19T08:49:00.000-04:00

Well, I'm too smart for my own good and tried out-think the market. Some say make your move and don't look back, but then how do you learn from your mistakes. I dropped RAI on the thinking that they had capped out for now, hoping to pick them back up at a lower price by now. Well, they've slowed down, but continue to go up. Yes, they raised their dividend which they have consistently done the past four years, but their P/E has expanded greatly over the past 6 months. I will get back in if they dip below 60.
I'm looking at WFMI again. They are below 60, but I will need to hear their next conference call before I jump on board, I have a feeling their growth is slowing.
I picked up EXP, not sure if it was a good move. They shot up this spring on increased earnings projections through end of '07. They split 3-1 and kept climbing. They have now given back all of their gains and are trading at a lowest P/E since their public inception. They have a hammer lock on the cement import business and should ride out a bad home building season much better then smaller competitors.
From this posting you may think that the only thing I care about is P/E ratio, wrong! Just so happens that it was an important idicator in these two instances.

I'm Back!!!

2006-08-15T16:11:00.000-04:00

Ok, time to get back at it. I've been busy, but that's no excuse not to make money. I have been doing well over the past few months in my 401k, driven primarily by RAI, DB and a few good trades. I recently sold RAI and may look to pick it back up, post split (today) and before the deadline for dividends.

As I said in my other blog, the new blog here will not only post picks, but reasons.

Well, I had just typed up my first pick and as I did more homework, changed my mind. I was going to say that HD is a good buy right now. Well, I would have been wrong. I think it could be a good buy soon, but at $34, even though its almost at a 3-year low, its still not a good buy. Upside potential for the end of next year is under $40 and this is no longer a growth stock. Let's assume the bad, housing market continues to fall, their margins shrink and sales fall. Next year's target EPS of 3.37 gets reduced to 3.10 and the P/E drops on confidence, you're staring $30 in the face or worse. So, it falls to $27, buy otherwise wait until Varney Bros. buys a new mixer, then buy.

Busy

2006-04-30T20:57:00.000-04:00

I've been so dam busy that I haven't made a change to my holdings since 3/19, 2 posts ago. I've been busy studying for the GMAT and getting applications ready. Had I been paying attention I would be doing even better then I am. That being said, I have passed the NASDAQ and S&P. I've almost caught the Dow Jones.

Index 03/16 - 4/30 Since 1/13/06
DJIA + 1.01% + 3.72%
S&P 500 + 0.40% + 1.79%
NASDAQ + 1.00% + 0.24%
Me + 3.16% + 3.58%

I'm getting good. The last 2 changes to my holdings have shot me from down almost 2% YTD to up 3.6% Things are going well, but I won't be making changes for until some night this week. What I will be doing is; add - AMGN, INTC, RAI hold - SBUX, COF, AAPL, VOLVY, TM, AH, CVX reduce - APA, CWTR. May reduce AH also, I think their run is over.

Update

2006-04-13T12:15:00.000-04:00

Finally, a new update this weekend.

Holdings Update

2006-03-20T00:28:00.000-05:00

Made adjustments today.

03/19/06

Cash - 876,208

Symbol - shares, price @ 3/19/2006, $$

APA - 12000, 66.07, 792,840
CVX - 8000, 57.18, 457, 440
COF - 7000, 81.90, 573300
CWTR - 20000, 26.57, 531400
SBUX - 25000, 36.61, 915250
AAPL - 5500, 64.66, 355630
INTC - 40000, 19.54, 781600
RAI - 12000, 108.84, 1306080
VOLVY - 12000, 45.28, 543360
TM - 8000, 108.20, 865600
AH - 15000, 58.01, 870150
AMGN - 16000, 73.25, 1172000

Green - increased position. If symbol is green, new position.
Red - decreased position

Moving on up

2006-03-16T23:17:00.000-05:00

For the 1st time since its inception, my imaginary $10mil hedgefund if above water. For the 2nd straight term, and since 2/10 I am beating the market.

2/26/06 - 3/16/06

DJIA - up 1.73%
S&P500 - up 1.23%
NASDAQ - up 0.55%
Me - up 2.30%

Adjustments will take place end of day tomorrow. I will taking some profit from CWTR and investing it in SBUX. Adding AMGN and COF. Increasing INTC and SBUX. Decreasing TM, CWTR and CVX. Drop CLX and BAC. Hold the rest.

Finally!!

2006-02-26T23:36:00.000-05:00

I finally broke through and beat the market. 2/10/06 - 2/26/06

DJIA - up 1.31%
S&P 500 - up 1.77%
NASDAQ - up 1.11%
Me - up 2.44%

This week's adjustments

Increased - BAC, INTC, RAI, TM, CLX and AH
Hold - CWTR, SBUX and VOLVY
Reduced - APA and CVX
Dropped - NUVO, WMT and MO

Brakedown

2006-02-22T23:05:00.000-05:00

Latest adjustment of funds was on 2/10/2006

Cash - 588118

Symbol - shares, 2/10/2006 price, $$
APA - 14000, 69.29, 970060
CVX - 14000, 56.61, 792540
BAC - 10000, 43.92, 439200
CWTR - 40000, 20.02, 710000
SBUX - 20000, 35.50, 710000
NUVO - 20000, 17.06, 341200
AAPL - 5500, 67.31, 370205
INTC - 25000, 21.29, 532250
MO - 5000, 71.87, 359350
RAI - 5000, 102.38, 511900
VOLVY - 12000, 44.18, 530160
TM - 7000, 103.29, 723030
WMT - 15000, 45.75, 686250
CLX - 12000, 60.88, 730560
AH - 1000, 49.45, 494500

Total - $9,580,123

#1 - I have too many holdings, will reduce by 3-5.
#2 - I've screwed up in a few spots. MO and AAPL were bad buys, both overpriced.
#3 - Should have stuck to my convictions and not dropped DB. Glad I didn't in my 401k.

Movements slated for end of the week.
Drop MO, add more RAI. Figure out who else to drop.

Update

2006-02-13T00:56:00.000-05:00

Had a problem updating this earlier. Summary I'm down 4.20% since start and all other indices are down less.

My changes for this week. Adding AH, RAI, SBUX and BAC. Holding NUVO, AAPL, INTC, WMT and CLX. Reduced APA, CVX, CWTR, MO, VOLVY, Cash.

Will give a total breakdown next weekend of holdings and shares. Highest stake is still in oil at 18.4%, which probably needs to change.

Scratching My Head

2006-02-13T00:34:00.000-05:00

Well I'm trying to get on top of this. So far I'm underperforming the market.

For the week

DJIA +0.11%
S&P500 -1.30%
NASDAQ - 1.84%
Me -2.37%

I am down 4.20% from the start. All 3 of the indices are down too, NASDAQ is closest at -2.38.

Got to figure out who to ditch and who to pump up.

Yo

2006-02-08T21:40:00.000-05:00

I forgot to tally up last week on Sunday night, but I decided not to change my positions for the week, so I'll update again next Sunday

Last week

2006-01-29T23:47:00.000-05:00

Not a bad week, but not a good one either. Market had a good week and I posted a slightly worse then market week. Had I not increased my cash position I would have matched the S&P 500 or beat it slightly. I need to add a new position and lower my cash position, haven't figured out what yet.

1/29/2006

S&P 500 - up 1.76%
Nasdaq - up 2.52%
DJIA - up 2.25%
Me -up 1.71%

No changes in this week's holdings.

Current Balance - $9,812,363

BLAH!

2006-01-22T22:20:00.000-05:00

Well that was a crappy start!

S&P 500 - down 2.03%
NASDAQ - down 2.99%
DJIA - down 2.67%
Me - down 3.52%

Here's the changes, I'm dropping both banks and adding Walmart and Clorox. Reduced my shares of Apple, Volvo and Toyota. Increased my shares of Altria and Apache. Also increased my cash position.

Current Holdings

Cash - $1,124,788

APA - 16000 - 1,185,440
CVX - 16000 - 977,920

CWTR - 45000 - 909,000

NUVO - 20000 - 311,400
AAPL - 5500 - 418,495
INTC - 25000 - 544,000

MO - 18000 - 1,347,120

VOLVY - 16000 - 740,640
TM - 7000 - 717,920

WMT - 15000 - 675,000
CLX - 12000 - 696,000

Total - 9,647,723

About Face!

2006-01-18T13:10:00.000-05:00

Drastic times call for drastic measures. With the impending Fed rate hike and missed earnings this week, I may have to shift some of my holdings around. If I scale back and go more conservative in the short term, I'll be looking to add some or all of YCC, CLX and WMT. Will probably reduce my stake in COF, DB, INTC and one of the automakers.

Grab Your Ankles

2006-01-18T08:44:00.000-05:00

and brace yourself! This could be a horrific day on Wall Street, the Nikkei dropped like a rock last night and IBM, Intel and Yahoo all announced they missed earnings. This could get ugly. Yes, Intel is INTC, so Stock Market 1, Brad 0. Analysts are predicting anywhere from a 4-10% near-term downswing in the market, I assume this is 1st quarter this year.

Big week for Stock Market

2006-01-17T14:04:00.000-05:00

Many important companies are reporting 4th quarter earnings this week. Fed Res meets soon and speculation is they will raise rates now and possibly in March. Got to figure out if this is good or bad for banks? I am assuming bad. A portion of my holdings are banks, but Deutche Bank and Capitol One should be hit less by Fed Rate changes then most other banks. Deutche Bank is German and Capitol One is known for having higher lending standards then most credit card companies and therefore maintain lower interest rates.

Initial Holdings

2006-01-15T23:41:00.000-05:00

Did a little work over the weekend and have come up with my initial holdings. One rule that I did not point out earlier, is that I will not own more then 3% of the outstanding shares of any company.

Indexes closing prices as of 1/13/06:

S&P500 - 1287.61
Nasdaq - 2317.04
DJIA - 10959.87

My Holdings 1/15/2006
Symbol - Price - Shares - Total $

Cash - $582,863.00

APA - 71.37 - 14000 - $999,180.00
CVX - 60.36 - 16000 - $965,760.00

DB - 103.69 - 7300 - $756,937.00
COF - 86.64 - 9000 - $779,760.00

CWTR - 32.56 - 30000 - $976,800.00

NUVO - 15.42 - 20000 - $308,400.00
AAPL - 85.59 - 11000 - $941,490.00
INTC - 25.79 - 25000 - $644,750.00

MO - 76.44 - 13500 - $1,031,940.00

VOLVY - 48.80 - 22000 - $1,073,600.00
TM - 104.28 - 9000 - $938,520.00

Total - $10,000,000.00

And we are off! I am planning on expanding into more small cap stocks, but have not had the time recently to research them, so for now we stick to mostly the big boys.

Survey and starting point.

2006-01-12T08:55:00.000-05:00

Well, I forgot my username and password for this blog as I went to log in today and realized that I hadn't written it down. The survey is out and I have received a few responses so far. Thank you to anyone who has responded.

I am starting to do some research on companies for this blog and will have my initial positions posted before tradng begins on Monday. My positions will be based on Friday's closing price as well as the portfolios comparison to the benchmark indices.

Within this blog I will mention what I have personally bought and sold for my personal account and whether I took a gain/loss.

Week of 1/9/06

Bought - AXP and CWTR
Sold - VOLVY(gain), BBY(gain) and CQB(loss)

Welcome!!

2006-01-09T09:24:00.000-05:00

If you are reading this post, then you have probably received an email from me with my 2006 Investment Survey. I am sending out the survey today to at least 12 lucky participants. Hopefully I will receive responses within a week and will be able to post statistics from the survey here. Obviously, the survey is anonymous to everyone except me and any information will be treated as confidential.

What to expect in this blog!!!

I will start with an account balance of $10 million and update my holdings weekly. At the bottom of the update will be an account balance, % gain/loss and comparison to the 3 major indices. S&P 500, DJIA and NASDAQ

In the future, with the help of my friend Pete and if I start doing well, hopefully there will be a podcast available ;)